The Art of Risking Everything
September 2, 2024
In this free-wheeling outing, statistician and professional poker player Silver (The Signal and the Noise) explores what he calls “the River”: people who make a living taking risks, from professional gamblers to venture capitalists. He pegs this group as a potent socioeconomic type—risk-tolerant, market-oriented, individualistic, contrarian—in opposition to “the Village,” the risk-averse realm of government bureaucrats and academics. Silver opens with a cognitive analysis of poker, which requires both computer-like calculation and empathic perceptiveness; then he moves on to a dissection of the mentalities of risk-taking Silicon Valley entrepreneurs. Silver aims not just to serve as a “tour guide to the River” for outsiders but as a sage counselor to fellow “Riverians,” whose triumphs Silver cautions are at risk from too much risk; FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried is presented here as a cautionary tale against a recklessness that shades too far into nihilism (he once said he would wager the destruction of the world on a coin toss). While colorful and enlightening, Silver’s narrative disconcerts with its blitheness about the system it’s describing—a society built on gambling, for gamblers (“Those of us who understand the algorithms hold the trump cards”). It’s eye-opening, but not quite as intended.